Business plan

The forecast for selling the console, generated from our cost figures by scripts/business/bp_model.py. It shows, for each of three legal forms:

• Unit economics: what one unit leaves after VAT, fees, shipping and parts.
• Break-even: how many units per year cover the fixed costs.
• Three-year forecast: revenue, profit, taxes with INPS, and what reaches the owner, under three volume scenarios.
• Cash low point: the money needed before sales pay for themselves, because each production batch is paid up front.

How to update it

1. Put the figures in scripts/business/costs.yaml. For each one, set status: real and give the quote or invoice in note.
2. Run python3 scripts/business/bp_model.py --update-doc. This rewrites the generated block below.
3. Or run /business-plan, which collects the figures, runs the model and explains the result.

Every input that is not a quote is listed at the top of the generated block, so a forecast is never read as if it were built on real numbers.

JLCPCB quotes for the board

Two JLCPCB quotes for the same board (PCB 4 layers, 1.6 mm, HASL; parts mounted on both sides). Splitting them gives the part of each line paid once per order and the part paid per board, which is what the model uses for any order size. USD at 0.92 EUR.

Line	5 boards (order W2026041704500077)	50 boards (cart, 2026-10-16)	Fixed per order	Per board
PCB	$31.44	$109.95	$22.72	$1.75
PCBA (parts + mounting)	$164.69	$556.32	$121.18	$8.70
Shipping	$24.29	$124.65 (7.37 kg)	$13.14	$2.23
Total	$220.42	$790.92
Per board	$44.08	$15.82

• At 5 boards the PCBA line is mostly its fixed part: setup on both sides, stencils and extended-part fees.
• At 50, parts and mounting cost $8.70 per board. That is less than the parts alone bought from LCSC for 5 sets (10.80 EUR per board).
• With import VAT and clearance, 5 boards landed at about 270 EUR. That gives a clearance fee of about 22.60 EUR per parcel.
• From about 10 boards per order, PCBA costs the same as placing the parts ourselves, and at 50 it is cheaper. See Assembly: our own or JLCPCB PCBA below.

Forecast

Generated by scripts/business/bp_model.py from costs.yaml and tax_it.yaml (2026).

41 inputs are not quotes

Input	Status	Note
fx_usd_eur	placeholder	update on the day of the quote
price.retail_gross	placeholder	consumer price incl. VAT (B2C)
channels[own webshop]	placeholder
channels[marketplace]	placeholder
unit_costs.battery	placeholder	LiPo 103665 3000 mAh since 2026-11-01 (AliExpress 1005012931343083); price NOT yet given — still the 5000 mAh cell's single-piece 6.00 (user, 2026-10-15); needs UN38.3 + MSDS
unit_costs.speaker	prototype
unit_costs.buttons_misc	placeholder	button caps, inserts, FPC, wires
unit_costs.packaging	placeholder	box, foam, manual, labels (WEEE bin, CE)
assembly_routes.self.unit_costs.assembly_test	placeholder	place + reflow + fix + fit display/battery/case + flash + test: ~40 min at 15 EUR/h
assembly_routes.self.shipments.jlcpcb	placeholder	fixed part as on the PCBA quotes; bare PCBs weigh ~40% of an assembled board (estimate)
assembly_routes.self.shipments.lcsc	placeholder	parts, paste, SD cards, screws, speaker, button caps
assembly_routes.self.one_off.assembly_tools	placeholder	hot plate / reflow, tweezers, microscope
assembly_routes.pcba.unit_costs.assembly_test	placeholder	fit display/battery/case + flash + test: ~15 min at 15 EUR/h
shipments.display	placeholder	panel seller
shipments.battery	placeholder	lithium cells travel on dedicated lines (UN38.3)
shipments.case	placeholder	case maker; bulky, by volume weight
per_order.shipping_to_customer	placeholder	cost to us; see shipping_charged
per_order.shipping_charged	placeholder	what the customer pays for shipping, net
rates.returns	placeholder	14-day withdrawal right (Codice del Consumo art. 52)
rates.warranty	placeholder	2-year legal guarantee: share of revenue set aside
rates.eu_sales_share	placeholder	B2C sales to other EU states (OSS above 10k EUR)
one_off.precompliance_scan	placeholder	one day in an EMC chamber before the formal test (500-1000), so a failure is fixed before paying for the full test
one_off.emc_radio_tests	placeholder	RED art. 3.1b/3.2: EN 301 489-1/-17, EN 55032/55035, EN 300 328 partly covered by the ESP32-S3 module reports (3000-6000)
one_off.rf_exposure	placeholder	RED art. 3.1a: EN 62479 low-power assessment (300-800)
one_off.safety_report	placeholder	RED art. 3.1a: EN 62368-1 (1500-3500); EN 62133-2 and UN 38.3 for the cell come from its supplier
one_off.cybersecurity	placeholder	EN 18031-1 self-assessment with Espressif's templates (own work + a review); a notified body adds 3000-8000 if a restriction applies
one_off.rohs_reach	placeholder	supplier declarations + spot XRF screening
one_off.tech_file_manual	placeholder	Declaration of Conformity, technical file, Italian manual and warnings, labels (CE, WEEE bin, battery)
one_off.enclosure_tooling	placeholder	injection mould if leaving 3D print
one_off.company_setup	placeholder	P.IVA / SRLS notary, chamber of commerce
one_off.website_brand	placeholder
one_off.trademark	placeholder	EUIPO 1 class ~850 EUR
one_off.first_marketing	placeholder
monthly_fixed.accountant	placeholder	commercialista; SRL costs more
monthly_fixed.insurance	placeholder	product liability (RC prodotti)
monthly_fixed.software_hosting	placeholder
monthly_fixed.weee_batteries	placeholder	RAEE + pile consortium fees, CONAI
monthly_fixed.marketing	placeholder
one_off_amortization_years	placeholder	the commercialista decides: 1-5 years
srl_extra_yearly	placeholder
inventory.paid_upfront	placeholder	share of a batch paid at order

Every figure below moves with them. Replace them with quotes, then regenerate.

Tax parameters not verified

Not yet checked against the sources: forfettario, irpef, inps_commercianti, srl, iva, customs. Run /fiscal-italy to check them; a commercialista confirms the final choice.

Cost inputs

Every figure the forecast uses, with where it comes from. EUR, net of VAT.

Per console, any assembly route

Item	EUR	Parcel	Duty	Status	Source
pcb_bare	1.61	jlcpcb	0.0%	real	JLCPCB $1.745 per PCB: split of two quotes, 5 pcs $31.44 (order W2026041704500077) and 50 pcs $109.95 (cart 2026-10-16), at 0.92 EUR/USD
display	8.00	display	0.0%	real	ILI9488 3.95in, single-piece price (user, 2026-10-15); lower in stock
battery	6.00	battery	2.7%	placeholder	LiPo 103665 3000 mAh since 2026-11-01 (AliExpress 1005012931343083); price NOT yet given — still the 5000 mAh cell's single-piece 6.00 (user, 2026-10-15); needs UN38.3 + MSDS
speaker	0.90	lcsc	2.0%	prototype
enclosure	30.00	case	6.5%	real	rough case 30 EUR, custom up to 100 EUR (user, 2026-10-15); the low end is used
screws	0.30	lcsc	3.7%	real	per console (user, 2026-10-15)
buttons_misc	1.70	lcsc	0.0%	placeholder	button caps, inserts, FPC, wires
sd_card	3.00	lcsc	0.0%	real	per card (user, 2026-10-15); only if shipped in the box; must not contain ROMs
packaging	2.50		0.0%	placeholder	box, foam, manual, labels (WEEE bin, CE)
pcb_order_fee (per order)	20.90		0.0%	real	JLCPCB fixed part of a PCB order, $22.72 (same two quotes; the user's '22 EUR fee'), not shipping

Assembly route self

Bare PCBs from JLCPCB, parts from LCSC, we place them with a stencil and reflow.

Item	EUR	Parcel	Duty	Status	Source
solder_paste	0.20	lcsc	0.0%	real	10 EUR per 50 g (user, 2026-10-15); ~1 g per board through the stencil is an estimate
components	10.80	lcsc	0.0%	real	board parts, 54 EUR per 5 PCBs (user, 2026-10-15)
assembly_test	10.00		0.0%	placeholder	place + reflow + fix + fit display/battery/case + flash + test: ~40 min at 15 EUR/h
stencil (once)	22.00		0.0%	real	JLCPCB stencil, reusable (user, 2026-10-15)
assembly_tools (once)	150.00		0.0%	placeholder	hot plate / reflow, tweezers, microscope

Parcel	Courier	+ per console	Customs clearance	Status	Source
jlcpcb	12.09	0.80	22.60	placeholder	fixed part as on the PCBA quotes; bare PCBs weigh ~40% of an assembled board (estimate)
lcsc	18.00	0.00	12.00	placeholder	parts, paste, SD cards, screws, speaker, button caps

Assembly route pcba (used by the forecast)

JLCPCB makes the PCB and mounts every part; we fit display, battery and case.

Item	EUR	Parcel	Duty	Status	Source
pcba	8.01	jlcpcb	0.0%	real	parts + mounting, both sides, $8.70 per board: split of PCBA $164.69 for 5 (order W2026041704500077) and $556.32 for 50 (cart 2026-10-16); duty 0% (assembled board for a console, HS 9504.50 / 8473.30: confirm with the broker)
assembly_test	4.00		0.0%	placeholder	fit display/battery/case + flash + test: ~15 min at 15 EUR/h
pcba_setup (per order)	111.49		0.0%	real	fixed part of a PCBA order, $121.18 (setup both sides, stencils, extended-part fees), from the same two quotes

Parcel	Courier	+ per console	Customs clearance	Status	Source
jlcpcb	12.09	2.05	22.60	real	shipping $13.14 + $2.23 per board: split of $24.29 for 5 and $124.65 for 50 (7.37 kg); clearance = the user's 270 EUR landed for 5 - (goods + shipping) x 1.22

Parcels merged: lcsc travels in jlcpcb.

Parcels from China, any route (per production order)

Parcel	Courier	+ per console	Customs clearance	Status	Source
display	8.00	0.00	12.00	placeholder	panel seller
battery	12.00	0.00	12.00	placeholder	lithium cells travel on dedicated lines (UN38.3)
case	15.00	0.00	12.00	placeholder	case maker; bulky, by volume weight

Duty is waived on a parcel worth up to 150 EUR (rule being removed by the EU, see tax_it.yaml). Import VAT is paid at customs on every parcel: recovered by the VAT-registered forms, a cost in the forfettario.

One-off and monthly

Item	EUR	When	Status	Source
precompliance_scan	800	once	placeholder	one day in an EMC chamber before the formal test (500-1000), so a failure is fixed before paying for the full test
emc_radio_tests	4,000	once	placeholder	RED art. 3.1b/3.2: EN 301 489-1/-17, EN 55032/55035, EN 300 328 partly covered by the ESP32-S3 module reports (3000-6000)
rf_exposure	500	once	placeholder	RED art. 3.1a: EN 62479 low-power assessment (300-800)
safety_report	2,500	once	placeholder	RED art. 3.1a: EN 62368-1 (1500-3500); EN 62133-2 and UN 38.3 for the cell come from its supplier
cybersecurity	1,500	once	placeholder	EN 18031-1 self-assessment with Espressif's templates (own work + a review); a notified body adds 3000-8000 if a restriction applies
rohs_reach	300	once	placeholder	supplier declarations + spot XRF screening
registrations	230	once	real	RAEE register 46 (30 + 16 stamp) + battery register 184 (168 + 16 stamp), Chamber of Commerce pages 2025
tech_file_manual	500	once	placeholder	Declaration of Conformity, technical file, Italian manual and warnings, labels (CE, WEEE bin, battery)
enclosure_tooling	0	once	placeholder	injection mould if leaving 3D print
company_setup	500	once	placeholder	P.IVA / SRLS notary, chamber of commerce
website_brand	1,500	once	placeholder
trademark	900	once	placeholder	EUIPO 1 class ~850 EUR
first_marketing	2,000	once	placeholder
accountant	150	monthly	placeholder	commercialista; SRL costs more
insurance	40	monthly	placeholder	product liability (RC prodotti)
software_hosting	40	monthly	placeholder
weee_batteries	25	monthly	placeholder	RAEE + pile consortium fees, CONAI
marketing	300	monthly	placeholder

Cost per console by order size

Sole trader, ordinary (VAT recovered). Only the per-order costs (fees, parcels, duty above the waiver) change with the order size; part prices stay at the quoted quantities.

Units per order	Parts + assembly	Shipping from China + customs	Cost per console	Cash per order
5	92.50	23.19	115.69	578
10	79.26	14.60	93.86	939
50	68.67	6.30	74.97	3 749
100	67.34	5.25	72.59	7 259

Assembly: our own or JLCPCB PCBA

Per console, parcels and customs included. Our time is part of the cost, valued at an hourly rate. Import VAT is paid at customs: the ordinary regime and the SRL recover it (it is only cash advanced), the forfettario does not (it is in its cost column). Part prices stay at the quoted quantities: a lower price at volume (LCSC parts for 50 sets) favours the route it belongs to.

Units per order	Route	Parts + assembly	of which our time	Duty	Clearance + courier	Cost, ordinary	Import VAT advanced	Cost, forfettario	Cash per order
5	self	79.19	10.00	0.00	27.94	107.13	16.79	130.70	570
5	pcba	92.50	4.00	0.00	23.19	115.69	15.62	141.14	637
10	self	77.10	10.00	1.98	14.37	93.45	15.80	114.01	992
10	pcba	79.26	4.00	1.98	12.62	93.86	15.02	114.51	1 049
50	self	75.43	10.00	2.14	3.51	81.08	14.69	98.92	4 288
50	pcba	68.67	4.00	2.14	4.16	74.97	14.22	91.47	4 260
100	self	75.22	10.00	2.14	2.16	79.52	14.54	97.01	8 406
100	pcba	67.34	4.00	2.14	3.11	72.59	14.12	88.56	8 271

When PCBA wins. JLCPCB's assembly price per board (parts + mounting, its per-order share included, the PCB itself excluded: both routes pay it) at which the two routes cost the same, ordinary regime. A quote below it makes PCBA cheaper:

Units per order	Break-even assembly price per board	This quote
5	21.75	30.31
10	18.75	19.16
50	16.35	10.24
100	16.05	9.12

Unit economics

EUR per unit sold, at a shelf price of 129.00 EUR incl. VAT.

	Sole trader, forfettario	Sole trader, ordinary	SRL / SRLS
Revenue (net of VAT and returns)	122.55	100.45	100.45
Sales channel fees	11.87	10.16	10.16
Shipping (net)	8.54	7.00	7.00
Warranty reserve	3.68	3.01	3.01
Parts, assembly, order fees	83.77	68.67	68.67
Shipping from China + customs	7.69	6.30	6.30
Contribution margin	7.00	5.30	5.30
Fixed costs per year	8 020	6 660	9 160
One-off costs (launch)	18 581	15 230	15 230
Break-even units/year (fixed costs only)	1 146	1 257	1 729

Launch costs per console

The one-off costs (15 230 EUR, of which 10 330 for certification and registrations) spread over the consoles sold in three years. A hardware revision needs new test reports, so the certification is spread only over the units of the design it covers.

Scenario	Units in 3 years	Certification per console	All one-off per console
pessimistic	850	12.15	17.92
base	2 200	4.70	6.92
optimistic	5 100	2.03	2.99

In the books (ordinary regime, SRL) the one-off costs are deducted over 3 years (one_off_amortization_years); the forfettario deducts nothing.

Three-year forecast

Profit is before taxes; taxes include INPS. Net to owner is for the SRL what reaches the owner if all profit is paid out as dividends. Cash low point is the deepest the bank account goes in a monthly simulation: the money needed up front.

Scenario: pessimistic (150 / 300 / 400 units)

Form	Year	Revenue	Profit	Taxes + INPS	Net to owner
Sole trader, forfettario	1	18 382	-13 163	4 931	-18 094
	2	36 765	-12 113	6 960	-19 073
	3	49 020	-11 413	9 280	-20 694
Sole trader, ordinary	1	15 068	-10 942	4 542	-15 484
	2	30 135	-10 147	4 542	-14 689
	3	40 180	-9 617	4 542	-14 159
SRL / SRLS	1	15 068	-13 442	4 542	-17 984
	2	30 135	-12 647	4 542	-17 189
	3	40 180	-12 117	4 542	-16 659

Cash low point: Sole trader, forfettario -62 435 · Sole trader, ordinary -48 080 · SRL / SRLS -55 580

• Sole trader, forfettario, year 2: from this year EU B2C sales ~11,030 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)
• Sole trader, ordinary, year 3: from this year EU B2C sales ~12,054 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)
• SRL / SRLS, year 3: from this year EU B2C sales ~12,054 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)

Scenario: base (300 / 700 / 1200 units)

Form	Year	Revenue	Profit	Taxes + INPS	Net to owner
Sole trader, forfettario	1	36 765	-12 113	6 960	-19 073
	2	85 785	-9 314	16 240	-25 554
	3 (ordinary)	120 541	-6 494	4 542	-11 036
Sole trader, ordinary	1	30 135	-10 147	4 542	-14 689
	2	70 316	-8 027	4 542	-12 569
	3	120 541	-5 377	4 542	-9 919
SRL / SRLS	1	30 135	-12 647	4 542	-17 189
	2	70 316	-10 527	4 542	-15 069
	3	120 541	-7 877	4 542	-12 419

Cash low point: Sole trader, forfettario -63 167 · Sole trader, ordinary -43 855 · SRL / SRLS -51 147

• Sole trader, forfettario, year 1: from this year EU B2C sales ~11,030 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)
• Sole trader, forfettario, year 2: revenue above 85000: ordinary regime from next year
• Sole trader, ordinary, year 2: from this year EU B2C sales ~21,095 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)
• SRL / SRLS, year 2: from this year EU B2C sales ~21,095 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)

Scenario: optimistic (600 / 1500 / 3000 units)

Form	Year	Revenue	Profit	Taxes + INPS	Net to owner
Sole trader, forfettario	1	73 530	-10 013	13 920	-23 934
	2 (ordinary)	150 676	-4 904	4 542	-9 446
	3 (ordinary)	301 352	3 046	4 542	-1 496
Sole trader, ordinary	1	60 270	-8 557	4 542	-13 099
	2	150 676	-3 787	4 542	-8 329
	3	301 352	4 163	4 542	-379
SRL / SRLS	1	60 270	-11 057	4 542	-15 599
	2	150 676	-6 287	4 542	-10 829
	3	301 352	1 663	5 006	-3 343

Cash low point: Sole trader, forfettario -58 316 · Sole trader, ordinary -45 248 · SRL / SRLS -50 248

• Sole trader, forfettario, year 1: from this year EU B2C sales ~22,059 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)
• Sole trader, forfettario, year 2: revenue above 100000: out of the forfettario this year, ordinary regime
• Sole trader, ordinary, year 1: from this year EU B2C sales ~18,081 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)
• SRL / SRLS, year 1: from this year EU B2C sales ~18,081 EUR above 10000: destination VAT through OSS (not modelled)

Model simplifications

• VAT is netted for the VAT-registered forms; in the forfettario no VAT is charged and input VAT is a cost.
• One-off costs are paid in cash before launch and deducted over one_off_amortization_years; losses are not carried forward.
• Returned units are refunded and written off; taxes are paid at the end of each year (really: acconti and saldo in June/November).
• Forfettario tax is on revenue x coefficient, not on real profit: when real costs exceed (1 - coefficient) of revenue, it taxes a profit that does not exist.
• SRL: IRAP approximated on the operating profit (no employees); the working partner pays INPS commercianti on at least the minimale.